So lets start with what they have submitted.
Setup #1
So in this setup we have a double Orthrus backbone supported by a Vagabond, Confessor and Crow. To me this looks like a general kite setup using rapid light Orthruses and a vagabond for their major dps.
The Orthrus is clearly the most important ship in this setup and the entire setup is depending on their piloting skill. Catching a Orthrus is usually not something you do easily but Camel are smart enough to bring links in almost every setup so who knows. This is one setup I can see accidentally boundary violate. One thing to keep in mind that this is a tournament setting and there is no warping off so you actually don't have to tackle a orthrus in order to kill it. Just being able to project damage far enough is enough
One thing that stands out at first is the complete lack of a dedicated ewar ship. Orthruses are actually very weak to damps and have a pretty bad lock range.
The Orthruses have two maybe even three possible fits (mwd rlml kite, 100mn and HAM) depending on what City of Angels wants to do. The first one is a standard xlasb + lse mwd kite fit with rapid lights.
The open midslot could be a ewar module like a damp or target painter or a defensive web. The dps drops to 564 with caldari navy missiles. There will be some minor variations to this fit of course like using a lock range rig or a damage control but in general this is one of the suspected fits I think they will run on the Orthrus. Something cool that they might do is actually to 100mn afterburner fit their Orthruses. This would make tackling them extremely hard with the defensive scram. The other potential fit is to HAM fit and brawl. This is more unlikely to me though because they lack logistics in this setup.
The Confessor should be a pretty straight forward beam confessor for killing anti tackle and providing additional ewar with its two open midslots. This ship will almost certainly be fitted with a oversize propmod and beams.
Something like this is probably what they are going to fly. This ship is really flexible with the gun range and can swap ammo types instantly and hit out to 50km+ using Aurora. The midslots will of course be swappable for any type of ewar. Two damps is a very big possibility as is defensive ewar such as remote sebos. All in all this is a pretty straight forward ship that will bring even more anti tackle to the table.
The Crow is a decent filler ship for 3 points. It's going to be a afk support platform most likely as crow dps is not really something to talk about. I see this ship just bringing 3 ewar modules straight up with either damps, tps or remote sensor boosters/remote eccm. There is a possibility of this ship using scram web and be like a suicide tackle to rush anything coming in. I would probably not have choosen a Crow for this spot as a Talwar or any other destroyer costs the same and can actually bring some damage to the table. This could support the scram web theory and that they wanted the extra scram range on a interceptor. Another problem with the Crow is the worthless lockrange this ship have making it next to useless for offensive ewar. So this will either be a tackle ship or a defensive ewar ship.
The Vagabond is the last ship in this setup. I honestly wouldn't have brought a Vagabond as the last ship but I am not a chinese AT winner so what do I know. The Vagabond doesn't have nearly enough range and projection using medium autocannons. Its definitely the weak link in this setup. I would probably have downgraded the Crow to a Merlin so I could replace the Vagabond with a logistics cruiser, Swap the Vagabond for a Ishtar or any other good faction or t2 cruiser. This is one of the problems with the rule that setups can only use a certain ship once forcing variation. The Gila for example is locked out as the obvious replacement for the Vagabond. Another good choice would be to actually downgrade the vagabond into a Heavy dictor. This would allow you to bring a t1 ewar frig instead of the crow and that could be huge for this setup as it lacks ewar.
I don't think the lack of logi is all that bad with this setup it looks like it's designed to never take damage in the first place and if CoA manages to do that they could grab a win with it but who knows. It's obviously a good small gang setup for normal pvp but then you can bring ogbs and faction fit your Orthruses...
Setup #2
A super strong drone kite setup capable of insane dps. A lot of people have been saying that this is one of CoAs strongest setups and I don't know if I actually agree. It's obviously a strong comp that will probably use drone nav comps and super fast drones or just go all out on the Gila tanks. Once again CoA lack Ewar and Links something that they should have considered bringing in my opinion. This is one of the few setups where they actually brought logistics ships so that's nice at least.
So let's talk about why I don't feel like this is as strong as people predict it to be. The first thing and most obvious thing is that the Worlds Collide tournament rules say that you can only bring tech 1 drones. In general this means a dps drop of 125 for a Gila using Valkyries with three drone damage amplifiers. That's not the biggest thing though compared to the 875 m/s in speed you lose and the hp on the drones. These drones will actually not be that hard to shoot down compared to the augmented drones with 20k ehp we had in the alliance tournament.
Another thing is that drones from gilas and worms are very vulnerable to ewar. Something a couple of camel setups can do.
Let's continue with theorycrafting the fits for certain ships in this setup. First up the Gila. This is a super versitable ship and really hard to actually theorycraft for. I'm leaning towards CoA bringing super tanky Gilas considering the fact that they brought a logi this round. This is a probable fit.
This could work out pretty well with that high tank + a Scimitar. Another possible fit would be to skip some of the tank and go with either a bit more Ewar such as damps or just straight up go for something with speedy drones using drone nav comps. I am not sure that will be as likely now seeing how we will only have t1 drones but who knows.
The worms are actually not going to do so much dps as people seem to think they will. They two major ways to go down with regards to fitting them. Either they serve as a more kitey support ship using assigned drones and ewar in their mids or they just go in as tackle ships. I think that tackling will probably be their major role but CoA needs to be really careful here and have really good tackling pilots. If you go in to early you just get murdered and if you go in to late your Gila gets tackled and killed. I think they will be having fits looking something like this
Having one Worm with a web and one with a scrambler probably. Bringing full tackle and decently high dps. Not much variation for this fit. You could get a nosferatu on there if you really wanted.
I don't know if I am such a big fan of the more ewar support versions. The worm actually lacks the lock range to highly abuse ewar modules but I guess something like this is doable
Setup #3
At a first look this is most likely the strongest setup CoA has brought and it's almost certainly going to be banned. But regardless of that let's talk a bit about what makes it so strong. First up is the Widows. This ship is pretty much a t2 Scorpion being able to provide a ton of ecm while having over 600 dps projected over the entire arena. They should be able to easily jam the entire enemy team.
One danger they face is when they lose the initial damp war because they aren't smart enough to bring remote sebos for the Widows because once the jams start landing the daredevil can go in freely and deal around 400 damage and allowing Widows to perfectly apply damage with their 90% webs. But if jams won't land the frigs will die instantly especially the Taranis. Apart from having super strong ewar this setup also has a ton of dps. Each Widow bringing 600 and Daredevil bringing 400 up to a total of 2000 dps + a dead Taranis.
Once again I don't agree with the interceptor choice here. I feel like a support destroyer for remote sensor boosters would be a better choice then a Taranis. A ship like a cormorant with it's 4 midslots for example. Making sure those widows get the initial jams on is so important and I hope CoA understands this.
All in all I think this is the first setup that screams instant ban for me. Two Widows are just too strong for a 5v5 format.
Setup #4
At a first glance this isn't one of their strongest setups that I fear they will be forced to fly because it certainly won't get banned. The only real dps in this setup is coming from the two typhoon fleet issues. Now the TFI is not a weak ship at all but I feel like its overpriced costing 19 points per ship. Something that could be interesting here is fitting them up with rapid heavy missile launchers. That's actually one of the few ways I could see this setup being able to win is if they manage to instantly remove a logistics cruiser or something for Camel. But I highly doubt it as Camel knows how to fly their shit and I trust that Camel have excellent logi pilot. The TFIs will also have problem doing enough damage against the camel links and ewar bringing them down.
Let's get down to the most important thing here what the potential TFI fits will be. First up is a RHML Rush that will focus on just straight up rushing and heavy tackling a logi or ewar cruiser and removing it quickly. This setup could do good if they manage to neut links off or get neuts + tackle on a logi cruiser.
Rigs and midslots are as usual up to some minor changes depending on their individual pilots. Being able to deal and apply 2k dps from two tfis will be devastating if they don't get perma tackled by a linked frig or just can't catch anything.
Another possibility is to run cruises with the merlins providing defensive ewar and counter tackle trying to kite with the TFIs.
Sensor booster could be another target painter depending on what ewar the Merlins have.
The other ships in this fleet is most likely just throw away tackle or ewar merlins. Once again they choose to bring a interceptor over a support destroyer. I don't even know what the Ares is supposed to do here, other then to rush in and jihad tackle something.
Setup #5
This looks like a pretty standard super high dps gallente rush setup. The Oneiros here reveals that they will go with armor tanks on all their ships. This is somewhat dangerous for the frigs seeing how armor reps land at the end of the cycle. But they should have plenty of hp and a ton of dps to bring with it. Camel doesn't have that many super high kite setups so who knows what will happen vs a gallente rush setup like this.
I highly doubt that CoA is going to actually do a railsetup and the vigilants will probably be fit something like this:
I think that CoA probably didn't fit a eccm on their vigilant and went with some random ewar or maybe double web for some reason.
This is probably one of the setups where I would warp in dps at 0 and logi at 30. Then depending on what you face either rush enyos in to tackle and then vigilants after to fully tackle someone. I would watch out for damps and if I notice heavy damps I would fly logi in with the dps ships.
I saw a lot of people on Reddit complaining that this setup doesn't have any projection and while that is true it's obviously not the point of the setup. Enyos are actually really fast and should be able to heat down and tackle a cruiser + survive long enough for a vigilant that is actually also kinda fast for a armor cruiser to get on the target. Keep in mind that the enyos will have over 10k ehp and a oneiros that if its good will have pre cycled reps on them. For the enyo I would fit them something like this
This brings the total dps up to around 2200. That's a lot of dps for 4 ships to deal with the current point rules. I don't feel this setup is strong enough for a ban though and there are Camel setups that can and will beat it.
Setup #6
This setup could also actually do a lot of damage to camel seeing how some of their setups lack the damage to break a Hyperion. What's most likely is that all the support frigs and the Caracal will die and then the timer runs out as the Hyperions are under heavy ewar. What CoA needs here is a fast initial tackle on something that's important for the enemy. I don't think two Hyperions can break a command ship in 10 minutes with a logi helping the cs though so they must once again trust in good tackle pilots grabbing something important to the enemy while the slow Hyperions make their way over.
These type of setups using self supporting Hyperions are not actually that uncommon and we have seen them before in New eden open. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNpX1maOkaI&list=PLQvKSs1k6DLPupFqSJOXP-Y6afuT9X-7f&index=106
Another piece of intel here is this loss from their version of the Alliance tournament: http://killboard.nl/en/?a=kill_detail&kll_id=738267
Here is one match showing a similar concept. It all depends on your tackle frigs being able to either catch and damp down a logi and get the hyperions to burn down a couple of cruisers or just simply catching the logi with Hyperions. Something that's easier said then done vs a team like Camel. The Caracal feels misplaced but I guess it's for removing ewar frigs and tackle frigs that can hold your Hyperions down.
Setup #7
The final setup and actually one of the strongest if you look at it. It's a kite setup similar to the first Orthrus setup that they brought but this time they actually have some ewar. Like always it will be about winning the damp war and this is something camel have done great with by having two staged ewar with both jams and damps making sure the Keres can't shut down them. Despite this I feel like this is one of the stronger setups. The Cerbs will be able to kite very well dealing a lot of dps from a long range away. The two variations here will be if CoA goes with the more common RLML setup or go with HAMs. Due to the bonuses on the Cerb it will be able to kite no matter what weapon system you choose.
The Cerbs will probably look something like this:
For rapid light missiles or something like this for HAMs:
Both very straight forward fits but I feel the ham version has the most variability. Depending on how deep they want to brawl with regards to midslots and rigs. Webs and or target painters with tank rigs is actually more probable here for them to fit. But who knows. Next up is the Cynabal. This ship will most likely fit autocannons and be a great anti tackle platform with a lot of midslots for ewar. For CoA will probably go with HAM cerbs with a autocannon cynabal for tackle removal providing this setup with great flexibility regarding range and being hard to tackle with a keres, strong anti tackle and a ceptor for some additional tackle work.
I guess I have to take the possibility of CoA bring a arty Cynabal as well. Arty Cyanbals are extremly strong against bad tackle pilots but once again this is camel empire we are talking about. But who knows maybe with enough TPs and a good tackle from the Ceptor a Cynabal might be able to one shot some of the lighter frigs.
This could be good paired with the rapid light Cerbs. This is one of the setups I feel like that random ceptor will actually be pretty useful since they have a Keres with them.
Closing thoughts
All in all I think the Chinese setups are not as weak as people seem to think they are and I feel that some comps could get a victory against certain Camel setups. They fell into the trap of making one setup look extremely strong compared to the others making it a easy ban choice though and I would be surprised if the Widow fleet isn't going to be banned. The last ban is a bit more uncertain and I haven't actually theorycrafted the camel setups hard enough to make a post about what setups beat what to say now but I am leaning towards either a #7 ban with the Cerbs and Cynabal or banning the Orthrus. I feel like the Gilas are overrated in power and their drones will fall from the skies like birds with broken wings. T1 drones are just not strong enough against camels fleets having both logi and ewar to counter them.
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